Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints29
- Nic ClaxtonAssists4
- Danny WolfRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–110
- Q44.7shot clock turnover123–110
- Q429.9Ben Saraf makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyson Etienne assists)123–110
- Q438.3Walter Clayton Jr. makes layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)123–107
- Q456.8Ben Saraf out of bounds bad pass turnover121–107
- Q41:06Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2121–107
- Q41:06Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2120–107
- Q41:06Isaiah Collier enters the game for Lauri Markkanen119–107
- Q41:06Tyson Etienne personal foul119–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:46Danny Wolf makes 25-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)UTAH 72 – 77 BKN · BKN 48% → 59% +10BKN 48% → 59%+10 pts
- Q48:00Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 96 – 97 BKN · UTAH 36% → 51% +15UTAH 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q46:29Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point shot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 101 – 98 BKN · UTAH 55% → 71% +16UTAH 55% → 71%+16 pts
- Q45:20Keyonte George makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 104 – 98 BKN · UTAH 72% → 86% +13UTAH 72% → 86%+13 pts
- Q45:05Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)UTAH 104 – 101 BKN · BKN 14% → 27% +13BKN 14% → 27%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -5.5
- ML UTAH -205 / BKN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- UTAH: Elo 55.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -181
- BKN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 113.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −21 | UTAH: Usual rotation · BKN: Missing Drake Powell −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | UTAH crossed 2 time zones and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +39 Elo | UTAH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 109.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.3 | Points allowed | 117.720th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −8.826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 109.426th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 118.226th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 26th of 301389 | Elo rating | 136527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−21 Elo- Drake Powell left knee injury management−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–9 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–1 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.