San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints28
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–130
- Q43.9shot clock turnover117–130
- Q427.6Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound117–130
- Q430.5Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2117–130
- Q430.5Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2117–130
- Q430.5Chris Livingston personal foul116–130
- Q432.6Dylan Harper defensive rebound116–130
- Q434.9Chris Livingston misses 24-foot three point jumper116–130
- Q452.8Thomas Bryant defensive rebound116–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:04Dean Wade makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)SA 63 – 58 CLE · CLE 37% → 46% +8CLE 37% → 46%+8 pts
- Q21:48De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 66 – 58 CLE · SA 54% → 63% +8SA 54% → 63%+8 pts
- Q25.4Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 72 – 64 CLE · SA 55% → 64% +9SA 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q311:37De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)SA 72 – 67 CLE · CLE 36% → 45% +9CLE 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q39:20Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)SA 77 – 78 CLE · CLE 53% → 62% +9CLE 53% → 62%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML SA +160 / CLE -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -171
- SA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 117.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −21 | SA: Usual rotation · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +62 Elo | CLE 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 116.014th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +3.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 115.010th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 8–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149517th of 30 |
| 14th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 7–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–4 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.