Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints48
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints35
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–136
- Q47.1Jerami Grant defensive rebound131–136
- Q411.5Stephen Curry misses 30-foot three point jumper131–136
- Q412.6Deni Avdija personal foul131–136
- Q413.2Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2131–136
- Q413.2Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2131–135
- Q413.2Moses Moody enters the game for De'Anthony Melton131–134
- Q413.2(00:13.2) [Warriors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Warriors] charged with a timeout131–134
- Q413.2Warriors Full timeout131–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:11Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)GS 124 – 121 POR · GS 54% → 76% +22GS 54% → 76%+22 pts
- Q42:19Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)GS 126 – 124 POR · POR 10% → 29% +19POR 10% → 29%+19 pts
- Q41:53Deni Avdija makes driving layupGS 126 – 126 POR · POR 27% → 47% +20POR 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q41:26Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 129 – 127 POR · GS 41% → 75% +34GS 41% → 75%+34 pts
- Q41:11Jerami Grant makes two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)GS 129 – 129 POR · POR 24% → 48% +24POR 24% → 48%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML GS -205 / POR +170
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- GS: Elo 63.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -181
- POR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.5 – 116.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +9 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40, Jrue Holiday −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +98 Elo | GS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 117.514th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 121.525th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −4.022nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 115.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.4 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 30 |
| 7th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15392nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301552 | Elo rating | 142324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+9 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–13 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 7–2 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 21POR 127 @ GS 123Picked GS 77%Miss
- Oct 24GS 119 @ POR 139Picked GS 58%Miss
- Apr 11GS 103 @ POR 86Picked GS 89%Hit
- Mar 10POR 120 @ GS 130Picked GS 84%Hit
- Oct 23GS 140 @ POR 104Picked GS 71%Hit
- Apr 11GS 100 @ POR 92Picked GS 77%Hit
- Dec 23POR 106 @ GS 126Picked GS 65%Hit
- Dec 17GS 118 @ POR 114Picked GS 56%Hit