Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds9
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints17
- Pat SpencerAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–112
- Q49.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound124–112
- Q49.7Pat Spencer misses 11-foot pullup jump shot124–112
- Q418.4Warriors offensive team rebound124–112
- Q418.4Chet Holmgren blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 1-foot two point shot124–112
- Q430.6Jalen Williams makes 16-foot step back jumpshot124–112
- Q446.0Cason Wallace defensive rebound122–112
- Q449.1Pat Spencer misses 11-foot pullup jump shot122–112
- Q454.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2122–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:28Gary Payton II makes 24-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)OKC 97 – 98 GS · GS 27% → 40% +13GS 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q47:27Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)OKC 99 – 103 GS · GS 41% → 57% +16GS 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q46:02Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 104 – 103 GS · OKC 51% → 68% +17OKC 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q44:40Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 10-foot pullup jump shotOKC 108 – 107 GS · OKC 54% → 67% +13OKC 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q44:06Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 111 – 107 GS · OKC 67% → 83% +17OKC 67% → 83%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -550 / GS +410
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 83.6%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -432
- GS +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.5 – 106.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1740 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | −50 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +283 Elo | OKC 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.2 | Points scored | 114.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Points allowed | 113.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.5 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 111.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.717th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–1 | Road vs home | 7–27th of 30 |
| 30th of 301451 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 1st of 301740 | Elo rating | 153513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–11 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | — | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–3 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 11GS 102 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Jan 29OKC 109 @ GS 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Nov 27OKC 105 @ GS 101Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 10GS 127 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Dec 8GS 136 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 18OKC 130 @ GS 123Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 16OKC 128 @ GS 109Picked OKC 62%Hit
- Nov 3GS 141 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 58%Miss