Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Pat SpencerPoints19
- Pat SpencerAssists7
- Quinten PostRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists4
- Nae'Qwan TomlinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–94
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)99–94
- Q40.3Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound99–94
- Q43.3Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point shot99–94
- Q44.1Cavaliers Full timeout99–94
- Q44.1Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 299–94
- Q44.1Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 298–94
- Q44.1De'Andre Hunter loose ball foul97–94
- Q44.1Warriors defensive team rebound97–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:14Jaylon Tyson makes two point shotGS 56 – 51 CLE · CLE 37% → 50% +13CLE 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q48:27Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerGS 80 – 77 CLE · CLE 33% → 47% +14CLE 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q47:03Pat Spencer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 85 – 77 CLE · GS 66% → 79% +13GS 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q41:48Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)GS 94 – 91 CLE · CLE 7% → 25% +18CLE 7% → 25%+18 pts
- Q41:26Brandin Podziemski makes driving layupGS 96 – 91 CLE · GS 78% → 92% +13GS 78% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML GS +295 / CLE -375
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.6%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -312
- GS +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.0 – 119.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −85 | +11 | GS: Missing Al Horford −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +144 Elo | CLE 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 119.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 116.112th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +3.511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–9 | Road vs home | 9–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149216th of 30 |
| 13th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−85 Elo- Al Horford sciatic nerve irritation−1 Elo
Cavaliers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 8–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 0–4 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.