Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Pat SpencerPoints16
- Pat SpencerAssists4
- Buddy HieldRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints35
- Quentin GrimesAssists6
- Dominick BarlowRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–99
- Q40.1Warriors offensive team rebound98–97
- Q40.2Tyrese Maxey blocks De'Anthony Melton 's 6-foot driving layup98–97
- Q40.9VJ Edgecombe makes tip shot98–99
- Q42.0VJ Edgecombe offensive rebound98–97
- Q42.5De'Anthony Melton blocks Tyrese Maxey 's 16-foot two point shot98–97
- Q48.2Al Horford enters the game for Seth Curry98–97
- Q48.2Will Richard enters the game for Quinten Post98–97
- Q48.276ers Full timeout98–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:19Quinten Post makes 27-foot three pointer (Buddy Hield assists)GS 91 – 92 PHI · GS 19% → 39% +20GS 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q41:49Gui Santos makes two point shot (Buddy Hield assists)GS 95 – 92 PHI · GS 58% → 77% +19GS 58% → 77%+19 pts
- Q41:31Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)GS 95 – 94 PHI · PHI 20% → 40% +20PHI 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q41:12Pat Spencer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)GS 98 – 94 PHI · GS 61% → 90% +29GS 61% → 90%+29 pts
- Q40.9VJ Edgecombe makes tip shotGS 98 – 99 PHI · PHI <1% → >99% +100PHI <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML GS +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- GS +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −99 | +60 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +114 Elo | PHI 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Points scored | 118.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 118.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.713th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301532 | Elo rating | 141525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–12 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–8 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.