Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints16
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists5
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints35
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–121
- Q410.0shot clock turnover102–121
- Q434.0Will Riley makes two point shot (Malaki Branham assists)102–121
- Q437.9Malaki Branham defensive rebound100–121
- Q440.3Jabari Walker misses driving dunk100–121
- Q451.5Jabari Walker defensive rebound100–121
- Q451.5Bub Carrington misses running pullup jump shot100–121
- Q453.3Bub Carrington defensive rebound100–121
- Q455.4Johni Broome misses driving floating jump shot100–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:46Justin Edwards makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)WSH 18 – 15 PHI · PHI 74% → 79% +5PHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q13:51Jared McCain makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)WSH 22 – 24 PHI · PHI 82% → 86% +4PHI 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q210:26Will Riley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 36 – 39 PHI · WSH 10% → 14% +4WSH 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q38:34Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)WSH 61 – 69 PHI · PHI 86% → 91% +5PHI 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q37:48Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)WSH 63 – 72 PHI · PHI 88% → 92% +4PHI 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -13.5
- ML WSH +550 / PHI -800
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8
- PHI 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 78.4%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -578
- WSH +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 124.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | +18 | WSH: Missing Khris Middleton −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +224 Elo | PHI 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 118.215th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.6 | Points allowed | 118.822nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.2 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.6 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.8 | Pace | 102.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149717th of 30 |
| 30th of 301290 | Elo rating | 140925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−12 Elo- Khris Middleton right knee−24 Elo
76ers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–13 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–7 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 28PHI 139 @ WSH 134Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Apr 9PHI 122 @ WSH 103Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Mar 26WSH 119 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 58%Miss
- Jan 8WSH 103 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 78%Hit
- Feb 10PHI 119 @ WSH 113Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 11WSH 101 @ PHI 146Picked PHI 80%Hit
- Dec 6PHI 131 @ WSH 126Picked PHI 69%Hit
- Nov 6WSH 128 @ PHI 146Picked PHI 73%Hit