Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Naz ReidAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints39
- Stephen CurryAssists5
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–120
- Q40.3Julius Randle defensive rebound127–120
- Q43.2Moses Moody misses 22-foot three point jumper127–120
- Q47.1Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2127–120
- Q47.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2126–120
- Q47.1Moses Moody personal foul125–120
- Q48.1Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Rudy Gobert125–120
- Q48.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Quinten Post125–120
- Q48.1Timberwolves Full timeout125–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:15Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Moses Moody assists)MIN 112 – 111 GS · GS 24% → 45% +22GS 24% → 45%+22 pts
- Q42:09Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler III assists)MIN 114 – 115 GS · GS 34% → 62% +29GS 34% → 62%+29 pts
- Q41:58Moses Moody makes layupMIN 114 – 117 GS · GS 63% → 80% +17GS 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q41:48Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 117 – 117 GS · MIN 19% → 47% +28MIN 19% → 47%+28 pts
- Q41:15Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 119 – 118 GS · MIN 35% → 61% +25MIN 35% → 61%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML MIN +160 / GS -192
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- GS: Elo 61.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -171
- MIN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.0 – 116.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +22 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +78 Elo | GS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 113.524th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 111.74th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 109.62nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
| 18th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15158th of 30 |
| 6th of 301592 | Elo rating | 156310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–16 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–4 GS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- May 14GS 110 @ MIN 121PlayoffsPicked MIN 77%Hit
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss
- Dec 21GS 113 @ MIN 103Picked MIN 61%Miss
- Dec 8MIN 106 @ GS 114Picked GS 52%Hit