Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Mark WilliamsPoints22
- Royce O'NealeAssists5
- Royce O'NealeRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints40
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q40.7Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound108–105
- Q43.7Jaden McDaniels misses 23-foot three point jumper108–105
- Q46.3Joe Ingles enters the game for Julius Randle108–105
- Q46.3Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Bones Hyland108–105
- Q46.3Timberwolves Full timeout108–105
- Q46.3Collin Gillespie makes free throw 2 of 2108–105
- Q46.3Julius Randle enters the game for Jaylen Clark107–105
- Q46.3Naz Reid enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo107–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:51Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)PHX 91 – 87 MIN · MIN 31% → 44% +13MIN 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q45:18Bones Hyland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)PHX 100 – 97 MIN · MIN 24% → 41% +17MIN 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q44:49Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 103 – 97 MIN · PHX 61% → 78% +17PHX 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q41:27Julius Randle makes driving layupPHX 106 – 103 MIN · MIN 8% → 22% +13MIN 8% → 22%+13 pts
- Q48.9Anthony Edwards makes driving layup (Bones Hyland assists)PHX 106 – 105 MIN · MIN <1% → 18% +18MIN <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML PHX +295 / MIN -375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.8%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -312
- PHX +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.5 – 117.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +18 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +146 Elo | MIN 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 120.36th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 115.011th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +5.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 111.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
| 8th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301553 | Elo rating | 16015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–8 | 8–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–8 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Nov 21MIN 113 @ PHX 114Picked MIN 64%Miss
- Mar 28PHX 109 @ MIN 124Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Mar 2MIN 116 @ PHX 98Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 121 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit