Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints23
- Dillon BrooksAssists4
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds5
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Steven AdamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–117
- Q410.8Jeff Green defensive rebound98–117
- Q413.8Clint Capela blocks Jamaree Bouyea 's 5-foot driving dunk98–117
- Q433.2Khaman Maluach defensive rebound98–117
- Q433.2Clint Capela misses free throw 2 of 298–117
- Q433.2Rockets offensive team rebound98–117
- Q433.2Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 298–117
- Q433.2Khaman Maluach shooting foul98–117
- Q454.1Jamaree Bouyea makes 4-foot two point shot98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:46Reed Sheppard makes 23-foot three point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 22 – 22 HOU · HOU 68% → 74% +6HOU 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q15.5Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 31 – 24 HOU · PHX 35% → 42% +7PHX 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q29:15Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)PHX 37 – 31 HOU · HOU 51% → 58% +7HOU 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q27:59Jamaree Bouyea makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 42 – 35 HOU · PHX 37% → 45% +7PHX 37% → 45%+7 pts
- Q26:36Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)PHX 44 – 40 HOU · HOU 54% → 62% +8HOU 54% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML PHX +300 / HOU -380
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.1%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -317
- PHX +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 105.5 – 114.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | 0 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +124 Elo | HOU 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 121.74th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 110.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +11.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 10th of 301562 | Elo rating | 16055th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
0 Elo- Tari Eason strained oblique−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–7 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–6 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 24HOU 114 @ PHX 92Picked HOU 69%Hit
- Mar 30HOU 148 @ PHX 109Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHX 104 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Feb 12PHX 111 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Mar 2HOU 118 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 73%Miss
- Feb 29HOU 105 @ PHX 110Picked PHX 72%Hit
- Feb 23PHX 110 @ HOU 114Picked PHX 55%Miss
- Dec 27PHX 129 @ HOU 113Picked HOU 57%Miss