LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints34
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints27
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–109
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound106–109
- Q41.5James Harden misses 23-foot three point jumper106–109
- Q43.5Nicolas Batum enters the game for Kris Dunn106–109
- Q44.8Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q44.8Ivica Zubac enters the game for Nicolas Batum106–108
- Q44.8Julius Randle enters the game for Naz Reid106–108
- Q44.8Jaylen Clark enters the game for Joe Ingles106–108
- Q44.8Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 2106–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:06Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot layup (James Harden assists)LAC 101 – 102 MIN · LAC 13% → 33% +20LAC 13% → 33%+20 pts
- Q452.5Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 102 – 103 MIN · MIN 54% → 68% +15MIN 54% → 68%+15 pts
- Q431.2Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 10-foot step back jumpshot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 104 – 104 MIN · LAC 14% → 47% +33LAC 14% → 47%+33 pts
- Q413.5Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)LAC 104 – 107 MIN · MIN 52% → >99% +47MIN 52% → >99%+47 pts
- Q47.5James Harden makes 1-foot two point shotLAC 106 – 107 MIN · LAC <1% → 15% +14LAC <1% → 15%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML LAC +295 / MIN -375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.5%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -312
- LAC +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.5 – 118.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | +20 | LAC: Usual rotation · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +235 Elo | MIN 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 120.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 115.512th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 30 |
| 7th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 148025th of 30 |
| 18th of 301462 | Elo rating | 15996th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–17 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.