Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints21
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints18
- Josh GiddeyAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–91
- Q40.9Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound123–91
- Q42.9Lachlan Olbrich misses 26-foot three point jumper123–91
- Q412.5Bulls offensive team rebound123–91
- Q412.5Jevon Carter misses driving layup123–91
- Q430.5Gui Santos makes 6-foot two point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)123–91
- Q454.6Trentyn Flowers makes dunk (Jevon Carter assists)121–91
- Q457.9Brandin Podziemski bad pass (Jevon Carter steals)121–89
- Q41:07Gui Santos defensive rebound121–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 3 – 0 CHI · GS 51% → 57% +6GS 51% → 57%+6 pts
- Q110:55Quinten Post makes 22-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 6 – 0 CHI · GS 57% → 63% +6GS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q23:56Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 52 – 40 CHI · GS 74% → 80% +6GS 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q328.6Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)GS 86 – 76 CHI · CHI 9% → 15% +6CHI 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q411:00Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three pointerGS 90 – 79 CHI · GS 81% → 89% +8GS 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML GS -115 / CHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- GS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- GS: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -104
- CHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 114.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −4 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +3 Elo | GS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 118.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −4.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 112.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 6–414th of 30 |
| 6th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 148421st of 30 |
| 12th of 301541 | Elo rating | 142225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–12 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.