Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Precious AchiuwaPoints17
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Keegan MurrayRebounds8
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–117
- Q421.4shot clock turnover103–117
- Q445.5Keegan Murray makes free throw 2 of 2103–117
- Q445.5Keegan Murray makes free throw 1 of 2102–117
- Q445.5Bones Hyland shooting foul101–117
- Q445.5Keegan Murray offensive rebound101–117
- Q448.3Malik Monk misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot101–117
- Q459.5Julius Randle makes two point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)101–117
- Q41:04Keegan Murray bad pass (Jaden McDaniels steals)101–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:31Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)SAC 75 – 80 MIN · MIN 73% → 81% +8MIN 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q411:41Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 87 – 88 MIN · SAC 21% → 32% +10SAC 21% → 32%+10 pts
- Q49:42Precious Achiuwa makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 90 – 91 MIN · SAC 21% → 33% +11SAC 21% → 33%+11 pts
- Q46:19Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Bones Hyland assists)SAC 92 – 100 MIN · MIN 84% → 92% +8MIN 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q45:51DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 95 – 100 MIN · SAC 7% → 16% +8SAC 7% → 16%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML SAC +320 / MIN -410
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.5%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -338
- SAC +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 122.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −72 | −46 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | SAC crossed 2 time zones and MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +236 Elo | MIN 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 119.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 115.010th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.4 | Margin | +5.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 116.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 8–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Opponent Elo | 149016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301429 | Elo rating | 16035th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–17 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 7–15 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–5 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Nov 24MIN 112 @ SAC 117Picked MIN 81%Miss
- Nov 14SAC 110 @ MIN 124Picked MIN 83%Hit
- Nov 9MIN 144 @ SAC 117Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Feb 3SAC 116 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Nov 27SAC 115 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 57%Miss
- Nov 15MIN 130 @ SAC 126Picked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 24MIN 117 @ SAC 115Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Mar 1SAC 124 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 76%Miss