Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints35
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Jerami GrantRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–134
- OT0.2Kings offensive team rebound133–134
- OT0.2Keon Ellis misses heave jump shot133–134
- OT1.5Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2133–134
- OT1.5Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2133–133
- OT1.5(00:01.5) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)133–132
- OT1.5Russell Westbrook shooting foul133–132
- OT4.4DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot133–132
- OT16.5Kings Full timeout131–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48.0DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three pointerSAC 115 – 115 POR · SAC <1% → 49% +49SAC <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:55Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)SAC 115 – 120 POR · POR 71% → 86% +15POR 71% → 86%+15 pts
- OT4.4DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot turnaround jump shotSAC 133 – 132 POR · SAC 9% → 90% +82SAC 9% → 90%+82 pts
- OT1.5Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2SAC 133 – 133 POR · POR 1% → 51% +49POR 1% → 51%+49 pts
- OT1.5Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 133 – 134 POR · POR 51% → 99% +48POR 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -8.5
- ML SAC +270 / POR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- POR: Elo 69.6%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -286
- SAC +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.0 – 123.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −85 | +15 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +144 Elo | POR 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 118.213th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.4 | Points allowed | 121.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.5 | Margin | −3.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 115.720th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 4–624th of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Opponent Elo | 15392nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301424 | Elo rating | 143223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+15 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–18 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 7–16 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–3 POR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.