Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints36
- Jake LaRaviaAssists6
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints32
- James HardenAssists10
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–103
- Q420.5Kobe Sanders makes driving layup88–103
- Q436.6Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound88–101
- Q439.7Nick Smith Jr. misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot88–101
- Q446.2Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 288–101
- Q446.2Adou Thiero enters the game for LeBron James88–100
- Q446.2Dalton Knecht enters the game for Jake LaRavia88–100
- Q446.2Maxi Kleber enters the game for Jaxson Hayes88–100
- Q446.2Kobe Sanders enters the game for Brook Lopez88–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (John Collins assists)LAL 0 – 3 LAC · LAC 46% → 52% +6LAC 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q18:08LeBron James makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 3 – 9 LAC · LAL 35% → 41% +6LAL 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q17:51James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 3 – 12 LAC · LAC 59% → 65% +6LAC 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q47:56Jake LaRavia makes driving layup (LeBron James assists)LAL 73 – 80 LAC · LAL 13% → 20% +6LAL 13% → 20%+6 pts
- Q47:41John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAL 73 – 83 LAC · LAC 81% → 90% +9LAC 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -130 / LAC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5
- LAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 69.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −18 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +140 Elo | LAL 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 110.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 117.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15265th of 30 |
| 8th of 301576 | Elo rating | 144121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–10 | 8–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–8 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 7–2 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 25LAC 118 @ LAL 135Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Jan 19LAL 102 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Feb 28LAL 116 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Jan 23LAL 116 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Jan 7LAC 103 @ LAL 106Picked LAC 61%Miss