Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points31
- Cam SpencerAssists6
- Kentavious Caldwell-PopeRebounds7
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints21
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–103
- Q43.2Cam Spencer offensive rebound121–103
- Q45.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–103
- Q418.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound121–103
- Q420.6Cam Spencer misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot121–103
- Q440.5Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2121–103
- Q440.5Clippers offensive team rebound121–102
- Q440.5Cam Christie misses free throw 1 of 2121–102
- Q440.5Olivier-Maxence Prosper shooting foul121–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:02Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MEM 57 – 56 LAC · LAC 49% → 58% +9LAC 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q36:40Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)MEM 63 – 64 LAC · LAC 53% → 63% +10LAC 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q35:22Cam Spencer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)MEM 70 – 64 LAC · MEM 51% → 61% +10MEM 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q31:46James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)MEM 81 – 73 LAC · LAC 20% → 29% +9LAC 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q357.7Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 86 – 75 LAC · MEM 72% → 81% +9MEM 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML MEM +180 / LAC -218
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 52.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.0 – 117.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +26 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −8 · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +15 Elo | LAC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 111.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 116.717th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −5.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 98.629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15186th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 145917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−6 Elo- Brandon Clarke right knee surgery−8 Elo
Clippers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–14 | 8–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 4–11 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–6 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 5LAC 98 @ MEM 107Picked LAC 55%Miss
- Nov 28MEM 112 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 69%Miss
- Mar 21MEM 108 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Feb 12MEM 114 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Dec 23LAC 114 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 68%Miss
- Feb 23LAC 101 @ MEM 95Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Jan 12LAC 128 @ MEM 119Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ LAC 117Picked LAC 71%Hit