Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints39
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds17
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints22
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Cedric CowardRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)130–126
- Q41.9Santi Aldama offensive rebound130–126
- Q41.9Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper130–126
- Q46.8Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic130–126
- Q46.8Santi Aldama enters the game for Jock Landale130–126
- Q46.8Cam Spencer enters the game for Jaylen Wells130–126
- Q46.8Grizzlies Full timeout130–126
- Q46.8Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2130–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:02Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)UTAH 112 – 110 MEM · MEM 32% → 47% +16MEM 32% → 47%+16 pts
- Q44:47Jock Landale makes 25-foot three point jumperUTAH 119 – 117 MEM · MEM 26% → 44% +18MEM 26% → 44%+18 pts
- Q43:36Kevin Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 124 – 117 MEM · UTAH 73% → 88% +15UTAH 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q41:35Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)UTAH 126 – 126 MEM · MEM 22% → 54% +32MEM 22% → 54%+32 pts
- Q458.8Keyonte George makes 22-foot pullup jump shotUTAH 128 – 126 MEM · UTAH 47% → 74% +27UTAH 47% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML UTAH +225 / MEM -278
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -6
- MEM 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 72.2%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- MEM -239
- UTAH +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 125.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +4 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +166 Elo | MEM 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 113.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.8 | Points allowed | 115.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −1.718th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 109.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 30 |
| 26th of 301386 | Elo rating | 152214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–11 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–5 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.