Utah Jazz at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints18
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Josh HartAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–146
- Q42.8shot clock turnover112–146
- Q426.9Isaiah Collier makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot112–146
- Q437.6Tyler Kolek makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot110–146
- Q444.7Jordan Clarkson defensive rebound110–144
- Q448.4Ace Bailey misses 20-foot jumper110–144
- Q456.0Guerschon Yabusele makes 1-foot two point shot (Jordan Clarkson assists)110–144
- Q41:06Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2110–142
- Q41:06Jazz offensive team rebound109–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:17Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)UTAH 0 – 3 NY · NY 89% → 92% +3NY 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q19:14Josh Hart makes two point shotUTAH 0 – 5 NY · NY 91% → 93% +2NY 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q18:46Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot step back jumpshot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)UTAH 0 – 7 NY · NY 93% → 94% +1NY 93% → 94%+1 pts
- Q18:35Mikal Bridges makes two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)UTAH 0 – 9 NY · NY 94% → 95% +1NY 94% → 95%+1 pts
- Q17:27Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 0 – 16 NY · NY 97% → 98% +1NY 97% → 98%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -16.5
- ML UTAH +800 / NY -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10
- NY 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NY: Elo 82.9%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -838
- UTAH +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.5 – 130.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +27 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +274 Elo | NY 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 120.26th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.6 | Points allowed | 113.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +7.24th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 119.34th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 11–12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 147927th of 30 |
| 26th of 301399 | Elo rating | 16015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–9 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 11–7 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.