Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints21
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–101
- Q42.3shot clock turnover131–101
- Q424.5Chris Youngblood defensive rebound131–101
- Q429.0Cody Williams misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot131–101
- Q432.2Cody Williams defensive rebound131–101
- Q435.4Ace Bailey blocks Branden Carlson 's 4-foot two point shot131–101
- Q450.8Chris Youngblood defensive rebound131–101
- Q452.8Ace Bailey misses layup131–101
- Q41:05Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound131–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:02Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 3 – 1 UTAH · OKC 81% → 85% +4OKC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q110:34Chet Holmgren makes 6-foot two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 5 – 1 UTAH · OKC 85% → 87% +2OKC 85% → 87%+2 pts
- Q19:56Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 8 – 1 UTAH · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q19:15Ajay Mitchell makes 25-foot three point shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 13 – 1 UTAH · OKC 92% → 94% +2OKC 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q16:25Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 18 – 7 UTAH · OKC 91% → 93% +3OKC 91% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -600 / UTAH +440
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 81.5%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -463
- UTAH +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 122.5 – 111.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1747 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −81 | −21 | OKC: Missing Isaiah Joe −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +258 Elo | OKC 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 85.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 118.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 125.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.6 | Margin | −7.225th of 30 |
| 5th of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 112.218th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 119.028th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–1 | Road vs home | 6–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 301463 | Opponent Elo | 15324th of 30 |
| 1st of 301747 | Elo rating | 139226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−81 Elo- Isaiah Joe sore left knee−10 Elo
Jazz
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–11 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | — | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–1 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 21OKC 144 @ UTAH 112Picked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 11OKC 145 @ UTAH 111Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 21OKC 130 @ UTAH 107Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Jan 22UTAH 114 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 3UTAH 106 @ OKC 133Picked OKC 87%Hit
- Mar 20UTAH 107 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 78%Hit
- Feb 6OKC 117 @ UTAH 124Picked UTAH 50%Hit
- Jan 18OKC 134 @ UTAH 129Picked UTAH 52%Miss