Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Jaden HardyPoints23
- Brandon WilliamsAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–132
- Q420.6D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point shot (Brandon Williams assists)111–132
- Q424.2Brandon Williams defensive rebound108–132
- Q427.3Branden Carlson misses 22-foot three point jumper108–132
- Q448.0D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandon Williams assists)108–132
- Q453.7Brooks Barnhizer makes 2-foot two point shot (Branden Carlson assists)105–132
- Q41:15Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–130
- Q41:27D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound102–130
- Q41:27Brooks Barnhizer misses 10-foot two point shot102–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:47Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 9 – 9 OKC · OKC 84% → 88% +4OKC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q11.6D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 27 – 27 OKC · DAL 11% → 15% +4DAL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q211:20Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)DAL 30 – 27 OKC · DAL 15% → 20% +5DAL 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q210:13Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Williams assists)DAL 30 – 32 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q24:43Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)DAL 40 – 46 OKC · OKC 87% → 91% +4OKC 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML DAL +750 / OKC -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.1%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -785
- DAL +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 107.0 – 122.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1743 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +49 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +332 Elo | OKC 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 122.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | +15.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 118.35th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 103.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.420th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 145830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301444 | Elo rating | 17431st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–15 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 8–7 OKC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Oct 27OKC 101 @ DAL 94Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Jan 23DAL 121 @ OKC 115Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Jan 17OKC 98 @ DAL 106Picked OKC 57%Miss
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss