LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints33
- James HardenAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints22
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–115
- Q41.6Kris Dunn enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic113–115
- Q41.6Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie113–115
- Q41.6Rockets Full timeout113–115
- Q41.6Ivica Zubac makes alley oop layup (Kawhi Leonard assists)113–115
- Q46.5Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q46.5Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard111–114
- Q46.5Rockets offensive team rebound111–114
- Q46.5Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:15Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)LAC 82 – 83 HOU · HOU 55% → 67% +12HOU 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q46:41Aaron Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)LAC 93 – 97 HOU · HOU 66% → 79% +14HOU 66% → 79%+14 pts
- Q44:08Amen Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)LAC 101 – 103 HOU · HOU 58% → 71% +13HOU 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q437.1James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 110 – 110 HOU · LAC 7% → 47% +40LAC 7% → 47%+40 pts
- Q417.2Amen Thompson makes tip shotLAC 110 – 112 HOU · HOU 52% → 92% +40HOU 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML LAC +300 / HOU -380
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8.5
- HOU 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 80.1%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -317
- LAC +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.5 – 115.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +40 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +242 Elo | HOU 80.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 120.94th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 110.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.2 | Margin | +10.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 119.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 30 |
| 6th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 19th of 301461 | Elo rating | 15975th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–17 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 12–7 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.