Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints27
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds8
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints29
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–122
- Q416.4shot clock turnover109–122
- Q438.9Moussa Cisse defensive rebound109–122
- Q440.7Aaron Holiday misses two point shot109–122
- Q446.3D'Angelo Russell bad pass (Aaron Holiday steals)109–122
- Q41:03Jae'Sean Tate makes 4-foot two point shot (JD Davison assists)109–122
- Q41:11Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound107–122
- Q41:16Jaden Hardy misses 10-foot two point shot107–122
- Q41:32D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Cooper Flagg107–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:36P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)HOU 31 – 36 DAL · DAL 39% → 46% +7DAL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q29:18Jae'Sean Tate makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 34 – 36 DAL · HOU 54% → 61% +7HOU 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q23:36Brandon Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)HOU 46 – 49 DAL · DAL 35% → 43% +8DAL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q22:18Aaron Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 50 – 53 DAL · HOU 48% → 56% +8HOU 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q38:34Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 64 – 61 DAL · HOU 63% → 71% +9HOU 63% → 71%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -258 / DAL +210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.8%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- DAL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.0 – 107.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +16 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +106 Elo | HOU 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.5 | Points scored | 111.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 116.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.8 | Margin | −5.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 106.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–3 | Road vs home | 5–923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 4th of 301614 | Elo rating | 144123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–6 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–6 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–4 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 3DAL 102 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Oct 31HOU 108 @ DAL 102Picked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 136 @ DAL 147Picked DAL 69%Hit
- Mar 31DAL 125 @ HOU 107Picked DAL 53%Hit
- Dec 22DAL 96 @ HOU 122Picked HOU 65%Hit