Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Devin BookerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–114
- Q40.0Royce O'Neale defensive rebound116–114
- Q40.0Marcus Smart misses free throw 2 of 2116–114
- Q40.0Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2116–114
- Q40.0Collin Gillespie personal foul115–114
- Q40.0Marcus Smart defensive rebound115–114
- Q40.0LeBron James blocks Grayson Allen 's 22-foot driving floating jump shot115–114
- Q43.0LeBron James makes free throw 3 of 3115–114
- Q43.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 3114–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q456.7Collin Gillespie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)LAL 111 – 109 PHX · PHX 3% → 23% +20PHX 3% → 23%+20 pts
- Q439.9LeBron James makes driving layup (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 113 – 109 PHX · LAL 81% → 96% +15LAL 81% → 96%+15 pts
- Q412.2Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 113 – 114 PHX · PHX 5% → 79% +73PHX 5% → 79%+73 pts
- Q43.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 3LAL 114 – 114 PHX · LAL 5% → 50% +45LAL 5% → 50%+45 pts
- Q43.0LeBron James makes free throw 3 of 3LAL 115 – 114 PHX · LAL 50% → 95% +45LAL 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML LAL -105 / PHX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -104
- LAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 117.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −11 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +6 Elo | PHX 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 114.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 114.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.122nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15265th of 30 |
| 8th of 301567 | Elo rating | 15539th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–9 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–7 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–5 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 1PHX 125 @ LAL 108Picked LAL 66%Miss
- Mar 16PHX 96 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 25LAL 113 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Jan 11PHX 127 @ LAL 109Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Dec 5PHX 103 @ LAL 106Picked PHX 52%Miss