Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds15
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–108
- Q43.0Paul George bad pass (LeBron James steals)112–108
- Q44.2Jake LaRavia enters the game for Deandre Ayton112–108
- Q44.276ers Full timeout112–108
- Q44.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2112–108
- Q44.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2111–108
- Q44.2Paul George personal take foul110–108
- Q45.6Gabe Vincent enters the game for Rui Hachimura110–108
- Q45.6Lakers Full timeout110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:05Andre Drummond makes 1-foot dunk (Paul George assists)LAL 102 – 100 PHI · PHI 22% → 34% +12PHI 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q43:43LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)LAL 105 – 100 PHI · LAL 66% → 84% +17LAL 66% → 84%+17 pts
- Q42:54Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAL 105 – 103 PHI · PHI 14% → 32% +19PHI 14% → 32%+19 pts
- Q41:29Joel Embiid makes 18-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAL 105 – 105 PHI · PHI 27% → 49% +22PHI 27% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:12LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 108 – 105 PHI · LAL 51% → 84% +33LAL 51% → 84%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.5% of 437 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML LAL -142 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.0 – 115.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +77 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +103 Elo | LAL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 117.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 116.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 7–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148224th of 30 |
| 7th of 301582 | Elo rating | 143324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–8 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–6 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.