Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints22
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- Adem BonaRebounds6
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints22
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists9
- Jericho SimsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–99
- Q40.0(00:00) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–99
- Q40.3Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes 4-foot two point shot (Cole Anthony assists)114–99
- Q415.9shot clock turnover114–97
- Q440.3VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound116–97
- Q441.3Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving layup116–97
- Q450.3VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2116–97
- Q450.3VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 2115–97
- Q450.3Justin Edwards enters the game for Quentin Grimes114–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:18VJ Edgecombe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 7 – 2 MIL · PHI 55% → 62% +6PHI 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q18:30Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)PHI 7 – 5 MIL · MIL 38% → 45% +6MIL 38% → 45%+6 pts
- Q17:42Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)PHI 9 – 8 MIL · MIL 40% → 47% +6MIL 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q17:02Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)PHI 9 – 11 MIL · MIL 47% → 53% +7MIL 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q14:43Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 18 – 13 MIL · PHI 55% → 62% +7PHI 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- PHI 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 42.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.5 – 110.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | −74 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 115.820th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 117.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.715th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 147428th of 30 |
| 24th of 301417 | Elo rating | 148217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–7 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Nov 20PHI 123 @ MIL 114Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Apr 3MIL 126 @ PHI 113Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Feb 9PHI 127 @ MIL 135Picked PHI 60%Miss
- Jan 19PHI 109 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 84%Hit
- Oct 23MIL 124 @ PHI 109Picked MIL 63%Hit
- Mar 14PHI 105 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Feb 25MIL 119 @ PHI 98Picked MIL 51%Hit
- Oct 26PHI 117 @ MIL 118Picked MIL 55%Hit