Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints36
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–126
- Q43.8shot clock turnover105–126
- Q428.0Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound105–126
- Q429.9Luka Garza blocks Dalton Knecht 's 6-foot driving layup105–126
- Q435.7Hugo Gonzalez lost ball turnover (Bronny James steals)105–126
- Q456.7Bronny James bad pass (Baylor Scheierman steals)105–126
- Q41:01Dalton Knecht offensive rebound105–126
- Q41:02Nick Smith Jr. misses running pullup jump shot105–126
- Q41:08Hugo Gonzalez bad pass (Nick Smith Jr. steals)105–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:28Jordan Walsh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)LAL 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q111:10Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 3 – 3 BOS · LAL 21% → 26% +5LAL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q19:01Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)LAL 3 – 8 BOS · BOS 77% → 81% +5BOS 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q18:33Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)LAL 3 – 11 BOS · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q14:35Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 15 – 24 BOS · LAL 10% → 13% +3LAL 10% → 13%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML LAL +270 / BOS -340
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -286
- LAL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.5 – 118.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1637 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −111 | −24 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +170 Elo | BOS 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 116.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 110.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 118.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–2 | Road vs home | 7–414th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 147925th of 30 |
| 7th of 301590 | Elo rating | 16373rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–6 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.