Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints30
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Derrick WhiteRebounds7
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints22
- Khris MiddletonAssists4
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–101
- Q417.1shot clock turnover146–101
- Q440.2Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound146–101
- Q442.7Malaki Branham misses driving layup146–101
- Q456.7Hugo Gonzalez makes 2-foot dunk146–101
- Q456.9Hugo Gonzalez offensive rebound144–101
- Q458.7Ron Harper Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot144–101
- Q41:08Anthony Gill makes 1-foot dunk (Malaki Branham assists)144–101
- Q41:22Hugo Gonzalez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ron Harper Jr. assists)144–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:22Hugo Gonzalez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 28 – 23 WSH · BOS 80% → 85% +5BOS 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q10.7Derrick White makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 32 – 26 WSH · BOS 81% → 86% +4BOS 81% → 86%+4 pts
- Q232.6Derrick White makes 32-foot three pointerBOS 63 – 56 WSH · BOS 81% → 86% +5BOS 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q214.0Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)BOS 63 – 59 WSH · WSH 14% → 19% +5WSH 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q22.1Derrick White makes 32-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 66 – 59 WSH · BOS 81% → 86% +5BOS 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -485 / WSH +370
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.0%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -390
- WSH +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.0 – 110.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1285 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | +42 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +182 Elo | BOS 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 112.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 127.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −14.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 107.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 121.330th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.2 | Pace | 103.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301624 | Elo rating | 128530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–10 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–0 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 5WSH 107 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 6WSH 90 @ BOS 124Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Dec 15BOS 112 @ WSH 98Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 22BOS 108 @ WSH 96Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Oct 24BOS 122 @ WSH 102Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Apr 14WSH 122 @ BOS 132Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 17BOS 130 @ WSH 104Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Feb 9WSH 129 @ BOS 133Picked BOS 85%Hit