Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints16
- Jamaree BouyeaAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds5
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–138
- Q412.3shot clock turnover89–138
- Q432.9Chris Youngblood defensive rebound89–138
- Q435.6Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 24-foot three point jumper89–138
- Q441.1Chris Youngblood kicked ball violation89–138
- Q452.3Khaman Maluach defensive rebound89–138
- Q458.0Ousmane Dieng misses 26-foot three point jumper89–138
- Q459.2Jaylin Williams offensive rebound89–138
- Q41:02Kenrich Williams misses 19-foot step back jumpshot89–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:48Cason Wallace makes two point shotPHX 0 – 2 OKC · OKC 88% → 90% +2OKC 88% → 90%+2 pts
- Q111:30Mark Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 2 – 2 OKC · PHX 10% → 12% +2PHX 10% → 12%+2 pts
- Q111:07Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)PHX 2 – 5 OKC · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q19:16Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 5 – 11 OKC · PHX 5% → 7% +2PHX 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q19:06Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)PHX 5 – 14 OKC · OKC 93% → 95% +2OKC 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML PHX +700 / OKC -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 82.4%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -733
- PHX +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 103.0 – 118.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1753 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +15 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +269 Elo | OKC 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 85.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 123.02nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 106.91st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +16.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 119.55th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 103.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 11–01st of 30 |
| 7th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 145930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301562 | Elo rating | 17531st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–8 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | — |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–7 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.