San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints30
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Stephon CastleRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–119
- Q42.2shot clock turnover132–119
- Q427.0Dalton Knecht makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jake LaRavia assists)132–119
- Q430.5Dylan Harper lost ball turnover (Adou Thiero steals)132–116
- Q451.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound132–116
- Q453.6Marcus Smart misses 25-foot three point jumper132–116
- Q41:02Julian Champagnie makes 4-foot layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)132–116
- Q41:09Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet130–116
- Q41:09Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Stephon Castle130–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:03Keldon Johnson makes 28-foot three point shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)SA 33 – 28 LAL · SA 36% → 43% +7SA 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q134.5De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 36 – 28 LAL · SA 43% → 50% +7SA 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q12.2Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 39 – 30 LAL · SA 45% → 52% +7SA 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q210:49Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 42 – 30 LAL · SA 53% → 60% +7SA 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q311:48Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 73 – 58 LAL · SA 69% → 76% +7SA 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML SA +230 / LAL -285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5
- LAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 69.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -244
- SA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.0 – 125.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +57 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +140 Elo | LAL 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 118.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 116.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 117.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.021st of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
| 15th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15867th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 15–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–6 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 5SA 116 @ LAL 118Picked SA 53%Miss
- Mar 17SA 109 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 76%Hit
- Jan 13SA 126 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 61%Miss
- Nov 27LAL 119 @ SA 101Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Nov 15LAL 120 @ SA 115Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Feb 23SA 118 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Dec 15LAL 115 @ SA 129Picked LAL 65%Miss
- Dec 13LAL 122 @ SA 119Picked LAL 60%Hit