Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists14
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints34
- Isaiah CollierAssists13
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–135
- Q41.8Luka Doncic defensive rebound141–135
- Q43.9Isaiah Collier misses driving layup141–135
- Q411.4LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2141–135
- Q411.4LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2140–135
- Q411.4Kyle Filipowski personal take foul139–135
- Q412.8Jusuf Nurkic makes two point shot139–135
- Q412.8Jusuf Nurkic offensive rebound139–133
- Q414.9Rui Hachimura blocks Isaiah Collier 's 5-foot driving layup139–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:03Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)LAL 84 – 90 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 52% +10UTAH 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q33:08Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)LAL 94 – 100 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 56% +11UTAH 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q32:06Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 99 – 100 UTAH · LAL 50% → 62% +11LAL 50% → 62%+11 pts
- Q49:31Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 112 – 108 UTAH · LAL 67% → 79% +12LAL 67% → 79%+12 pts
- Q47:07Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Isaiah Collier assists)LAL 119 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 14% → 25% +11UTAH 14% → 25%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -395 / UTAH +310
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6.5
- LAL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 73.8%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -327
- UTAH +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 126.0 – 116.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −39 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +180 Elo | LAL 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.09th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 126.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 119.028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–3 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15324th of 30 |
| 8th of 301572 | Elo rating | 140526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–9 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–8 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 7–2 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 23LAL 108 @ UTAH 106Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 18UTAH 126 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Feb 12LAL 119 @ UTAH 131Picked LAL 77%Miss
- Feb 10UTAH 113 @ LAL 132Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Dec 1LAL 105 @ UTAH 104Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Nov 19UTAH 118 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 82%Hit
- Feb 14LAL 138 @ UTAH 122Picked UTAH 65%Miss
- Jan 13LAL 125 @ UTAH 132Picked UTAH 68%Hit