Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints42
- Ryan NembhardAssists11
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds14
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints37
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–140
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–140
- OT18.7Keyonte George defensive rebound133–140
- OT18.7Dwight Powell misses tip shot133–140
- OT18.7Dwight Powell offensive rebound133–140
- OT26.4Klay Thompson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot133–140
- OT31.0Dwight Powell enters the game for Naji Marshall133–140
- OT31.0Mavericks Full timeout133–140
- OT31.8Kyle Filipowski makes 7-foot two point shot133–140
- OT56.5P.J. Washington makes 1-foot dunk (Ryan Nembhard assists)133–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:43Isaiah Collier makes two point shotDAL 124 – 122 UTAH · UTAH 5% → 29% +24UTAH 5% → 29%+24 pts
- Q41:09Kyle Filipowski makes 2-foot layup (Isaiah Collier assists)DAL 124 – 124 UTAH · UTAH 25% → 50% +25UTAH 25% → 50%+25 pts
- Q453.6Isaiah Collier makes two point shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)DAL 124 – 127 UTAH · UTAH 65% → 87% +23UTAH 65% → 87%+23 pts
- Q446.7Cooper Flagg makes driving layupDAL 126 – 127 UTAH · DAL 11% → 34% +23DAL 11% → 34%+23 pts
- Q43.9Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2DAL 129 – 129 UTAH · DAL 8% → 50% +42DAL 8% → 50%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -115 / UTAH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -104
- UTAH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 121.0 – 119.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +1 | DAL: Missing Brandon Williams −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +4 Elo | UTAH 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 118.112th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 125.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 119.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.2 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 6–719th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15363rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301463 | Elo rating | 139625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−34 Elo- Brandon Williams right achilles soreness−13 Elo
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–13 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–2 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.