Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points34
- Terance MannAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints24
- Cooper FlaggAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–119
- Q415.0Anthony Davis defensive rebound111–119
- Q416.4Nic Claxton misses driving floating jump shot111–119
- Q418.3Nic Claxton offensive rebound111–119
- Q421.1Noah Clowney misses 27-foot three point shot111–119
- Q424.4P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q424.4P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q424.4Terance Mann personal take foul111–117
- Q433.5Anthony Davis defensive rebound111–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:34Danny Wolf makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 97 – 97 DAL · BKN 27% → 40% +13BKN 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q43:49Danny Wolf makes 6-foot two point shot (Terance Mann assists)BKN 107 – 108 DAL · BKN 24% → 37% +13BKN 24% → 37%+13 pts
- Q43:29P.J. Washington makes 4-foot two point shotBKN 107 – 110 DAL · DAL 64% → 77% +13DAL 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q43:10Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 110 – 110 DAL · BKN 23% → 44% +22BKN 23% → 44%+22 pts
- Q42:50Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)BKN 110 – 113 DAL · DAL 55% → 78% +23DAL 55% → 78%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML BKN +235 / DAL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.4%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -249
- BKN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 113.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +18 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +126 Elo | DAL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 111.826th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 116.116th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −4.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 107.230th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.5 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–921st of 30 |
| 16th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 151210th of 30 |
| 27th of 301363 | Elo rating | 145820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.