LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints22
- Kawhi LeonardAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–122
- Q42.0shot clock turnover101–122
- Q425.9Kobe Sanders lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)101–122
- Q441.1Aaron Wiggins makes running layup (Cason Wallace assists)101–122
- Q444.5Kobe Sanders bad pass
turnover (Cason Wallace steals)101–120
- Q457.8Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot running jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)101–120
- Q41:01RayJ Dennis bad pass
turnover (Isaiah Joe steals)101–117
- Q41:13Aaron Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2101–117
- Q41:13Thunder offensive team rebound101–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:30Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAC 26 – 22 OKC · OKC 78% → 83% +5OKC 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q112.4Nicolas Batum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 33 – 25 OKC · LAC 20% → 26% +5LAC 20% → 26%+5 pts
- Q210:20Kris Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 38 – 31 OKC · LAC 20% → 25% +5LAC 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q29:03Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)LAC 38 – 36 OKC · OKC 78% → 83% +5OKC 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q28:47Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)LAC 41 – 36 OKC · LAC 17% → 22% +5LAC 17% → 22%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML LAC +900 / OKC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -16.5
- OKC 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 93.3%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -941
- LAC +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 103.0 – 119.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1754 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | +32 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +459 Elo | OKC 93.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 91.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 91.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 123.12nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +16.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 119.44th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 103.11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 12–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 146330th of 30 |
| 21st of 301443 | Elo rating | 17541st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–18 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | — |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–7 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 4OKC 126 @ LAC 107Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 23OKC 103 @ LAC 101Picked LAC 50%Miss
- Jan 2LAC 98 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Nov 11LAC 128 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 2OKC 105 @ LAC 92Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Feb 22LAC 107 @ OKC 129Picked LAC 52%Miss
- Jan 16OKC 117 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 57%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 115 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 66%Hit