San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints23
- Harrison BarnesAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–109
- Q40.0Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound111–109
- Q40.0Alex Caruso misses 8-foot tip shot111–109
- Q41.5Alex Caruso offensive rebound111–109
- Q41.5Jalen Williams misses free throw 2 of 2111–109
- Q41.5Luke Kornet enters the game for Stephon Castle111–109
- Q41.5Harrison Barnes enters the game for Julian Champagnie111–109
- Q41.5Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Jaylin Williams111–109
- Q41.5Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:43Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 99 – 98 OKC · SA 27% → 47% +21SA 27% → 47%+21 pts
- Q42:55Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 100 – 101 OKC · OKC 42% → 67% +25OKC 42% → 67%+25 pts
- Q42:32Victor Wembanyama makes 14-foot jumperSA 102 – 101 OKC · SA 33% → 51% +18SA 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q414.9Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 3-foot driving dunkSA 106 – 105 OKC · OKC 2% → 25% +24OKC 2% → 25%+24 pts
- Q49.8Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2SA 107 – 105 OKC · SA 80% → 96% +16SA 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML SA +425 / OKC -575
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 73.2%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -447
- SA +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1762 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +86 | +35 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +175 Elo | OKC 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 123.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 106.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +17.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 103.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 15th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 145930th of 30 |
| 13th of 301537 | Elo rating | 17621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 14–11 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–5 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.