Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints22
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–125
- Q422.2Drew Timme defensive rebound101–125
- Q426.5Doug McDermott misses 25-foot three point jumper101–125
- Q428.6Maxime Raynaud offensive rebound101–125
- Q430.5Keon Ellis misses driving layup101–125
- Q442.4Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound101–125
- Q444.2Adou Thiero misses driving layup101–125
- Q458.6Maxime Raynaud makes layup (Nique Clifford assists)101–125
- Q41:16Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three point jumper (Adou Thiero assists)99–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:55Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumperSAC 9 – 8 LAL · SAC 18% → 23% +5SAC 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q14:49Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 15 – 18 LAL · LAL 78% → 83% +5LAL 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q210:26Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 29 – 35 LAL · LAL 82% → 86% +5LAL 82% → 86%+5 pts
- Q210:12Malik Monk makes 27-foot three pointer (Precious Achiuwa assists)SAC 32 – 35 LAL · SAC 14% → 19% +5SAC 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q29:56Jarred Vanderbilt makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)SAC 32 – 38 LAL · LAL 81% → 86% +5LAL 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -12.5
- ML SAC +380 / LAL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 76.7%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -400
- SAC +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 109.5 – 122.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −58 | −16 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +207 Elo | LAL 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 116.914th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 117.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 116.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.525th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 7–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 301549 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 151814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–19 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 11–17 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–5 LAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Oct 26LAL 127 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 56%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 122 @ LAL 132Picked SAC 59%Miss
- Dec 21LAL 103 @ SAC 99Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Dec 19LAL 113 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Oct 26SAC 127 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Mar 13LAL 107 @ SAC 120Picked LAL 58%Miss
- Mar 6SAC 130 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 64%Miss
- Nov 15SAC 125 @ LAL 110Picked SAC 58%Hit