Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints23
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–132
- Q415.1shot clock turnover108–132
- Q439.4Adou Thiero makes 1-foot layup (Bronny James assists)108–132
- Q454.0Rasheer Fleming makes free throw 2 of 2106–132
- Q454.0Rasheer Fleming makes free throw 1 of 2106–131
- Q454.0Nick Smith Jr. shooting foul106–130
- Q454.2Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound106–130
- Q456.8Jamaree Bouyea misses 25-foot three point jumper106–130
- Q459.7Nick Smith Jr. bad pass
turnover (Rasheer Fleming steals)106–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:55Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 36 – 43 PHX · PHX 66% → 73% +7PHX 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q26:34Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)LAL 39 – 43 PHX · LAL 27% → 34% +7LAL 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q25:58Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)LAL 42 – 45 PHX · LAL 29% → 37% +7LAL 29% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:43Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)LAL 42 – 48 PHX · PHX 63% → 71% +7PHX 63% → 71%+7 pts
- Q24:43Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 46 – 53 PHX · PHX 66% → 73% +7PHX 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML LAL +124 / PHX -148
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 58.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -134
- LAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −9 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAL crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +59 Elo | PHX 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 114.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.111th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 112.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–4 | Road vs home | 9–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15275th of 30 |
| 10th of 301555 | Elo rating | 154711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–11 | 18–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–9 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–5 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Dec 14LAL 116 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Dec 1PHX 125 @ LAL 108Picked LAL 66%Miss
- Mar 16PHX 96 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 25LAL 113 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Jan 11PHX 127 @ LAL 109Picked LAL 56%Miss