Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints31
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Quinten PostRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints25
- Collin GillespieAssists5
- Oso IghodaroRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–99
- Q40.4Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 298–99
- Q40.4Ryan Dunn enters the game for Collin Gillespie98–98
- Q40.4Suns offensive team rebound98–98
- Q40.4Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 1 of 298–98
- Q40.4Stephen Curry enters the game for De'Anthony Melton98–98
- Q40.4Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Gary Payton II98–98
- Q40.4Moses Moody shooting foul98–98
- Q40.4(00:00.4) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)98–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:07Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 87 – 86 PHX · GS 37% → 58% +21GS 37% → 58%+21 pts
- Q436.3Jimmy Butler III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 96 – 96 PHX · GS 8% → 50% +42GS 8% → 50%+42 pts
- Q431.2Devin Booker makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)GS 96 – 98 PHX · PHX 50% → 84% +34PHX 50% → 84%+34 pts
- Q421.7Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2GS 98 – 98 PHX · GS 28% → 50% +23GS 28% → 50%+23 pts
- Q40.4Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2GS 98 – 99 PHX · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML GS -130 / PHX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- GS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- GS: Elo 46.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -119
- PHX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −7 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +26 Elo | PHX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Points scored | 114.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 114.59th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 112.914th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 8–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15256th of 30 |
| 11th of 301543 | Elo rating | 154810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–14 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–5 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 4PHX 107 @ GS 118Picked GS 79%Hit
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit
- Nov 30GS 105 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Hit
- Feb 10PHX 112 @ GS 113Picked GS 55%Hit
- Dec 12GS 116 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 59%Hit
- Nov 22GS 115 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 62%Hit