Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints38
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Oso IghodaroRebounds7
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Stephen CurryRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound116–119
- Q41.1Devin Booker misses 40-foot three point pullup jump shot116–119
- Q45.7Royce O'Neale enters the game for Ryan Dunn116–119
- Q45.7Dillon Brooks enters the game for Oso Ighodaro116–119
- Q45.7Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Stephen Curry116–119
- Q45.7Gary Payton II enters the game for Brandin Podziemski116–119
- Q45.7Suns Full timeout116–119
- Q45.7Stephen Curry makes two point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:27Ryan Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)PHX 86 – 87 GS · PHX 27% → 37% +10PHX 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q41:10Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 110 – 112 GS · PHX 4% → 23% +19PHX 4% → 23%+19 pts
- Q454.6Jimmy Butler III makes 4-foot layup (Gary Payton II assists)PHX 110 – 114 GS · GS 79% → 94% +15GS 79% → 94%+15 pts
- Q410.9Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 116 – 117 GS · PHX <1% → 19% +19PHX <1% → 19%+19 pts
- Q45.7Stephen Curry makes two point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)PHX 116 – 119 GS · GS 88% → >99% +12GS 88% → >99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML PHX +190 / GS -230
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- GS: Elo 56.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- GS -202
- PHX +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.0 – 116.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +16 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +48 Elo | GS 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 112.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.719th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 7–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 30 |
| 10th of 301551 | Elo rating | 153912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–10 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–2 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 6–4 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 18GS 98 @ PHX 99Picked GS 54%Miss
- Nov 4PHX 107 @ GS 118Picked GS 79%Hit
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit
- Nov 30GS 105 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Hit
- Feb 10PHX 112 @ GS 113Picked GS 55%Hit
- Dec 12GS 116 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 59%Hit