Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints28
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game124–125
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime124–125
- OT0.8Rockets offensive team rebound124–125
- OT0.8Kevin Durant misses 21-foot pullup jump shot124–125
- OT2.2Rockets Full timeout124–125
- OT2.2Precious Achiuwa kicked ball violation124–125
- OT2.2Reed Sheppard enters the game for Tari Eason124–125
- OT2.2Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie124–125
- OT2.2Precious Achiuwa enters the game for DeMar DeRozan124–125
- OT2.2Rockets Full timeout124–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q414.2Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)HOU 112 – 112 SAC · SAC 1% → 47% +46SAC 1% → 47%+46 pts
- OT1:11Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 120 – 120 SAC · HOU 20% → 56% +36HOU 20% → 56%+36 pts
- OT38.7Jabari Smith Jr. makes 5-foot alley oop dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 122 – 122 SAC · HOU 21% → 54% +33HOU 21% → 54%+33 pts
- OT10.4Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 3HOU 123 – 122 SAC · HOU 52% → 82% +30HOU 52% → 82%+30 pts
- OT3.1Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)HOU 124 – 125 SAC · SAC <1% → 94% +94SAC <1% → 94%+94 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML HOU -625 / SAC +455
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 82.4%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -478
- SAC +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.5 – 105.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | −83 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +268 Elo | HOU 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 83.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 111.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 121.926th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.2 | Margin | −10.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 106.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 103.011th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 3–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15561st of 30 |
| 6th of 301597 | Elo rating | 141725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–10 | 9–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–17 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.