Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints29
- Jose AlvaradoAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game128–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime128–133
- OT0.0Rockets offensive team rebound128–133
- OT0.0Alperen Sengun misses 34-foot three point jumper128–133
- OT2.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2128–133
- OT2.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2128–132
- OT2.1Steven Adams personal foul128–131
- OT2.1Saddiq Bey defensive rebound128–131
- OT5.2Reed Sheppard misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot128–131
- OT6.4Alperen Sengun offensive rebound128–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:11Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)HOU 114 – 113 NO · NO 16% → 35% +19NO 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q430.7Saddiq Bey makes 2-foot two point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)HOU 117 – 117 NO · NO 14% → 47% +33NO 14% → 47%+33 pts
- Q413.3Amen Thompson makes 1-foot two point shotHOU 119 – 117 NO · HOU 52% → 94% +42HOU 52% → 94%+42 pts
- Q49.4Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 119 – 119 NO · NO 17% → 48% +31NO 17% → 48%+31 pts
- OT2:03Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Jose Alvarado assists)HOU 123 – 125 NO · NO 44% → 64% +20NO 44% → 64%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML HOU -410 / NO +320
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 76.0%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -338
- NO +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 123.0 – 113.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1355 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +32 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +201 Elo | HOU 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 122.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.7 | Margin | −8.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 119.429th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.717th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 3–1229th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15324th of 30 |
| 7th of 301593 | Elo rating | 135529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–9 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–9 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 8NO 117 @ HOU 146Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Mar 6HOU 109 @ NO 97Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 26HOU 128 @ NO 111Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Dec 19NO 113 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 105 @ NO 127Picked NO 69%Hit
- Jan 31NO 110 @ HOU 99Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Dec 23HOU 106 @ NO 104Picked NO 71%Miss
- Nov 10NO 101 @ HOU 104Picked HOU 63%Hit