New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints20
- Derik QueenAssists5
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints20
- Coby WhiteAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–104
- Q46.4shot clock turnover114–104
- Q430.4Dalen Terry makes 1-foot two point shot114–104
- Q436.9Zion Williamson makes alley oop dunk shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)114–102
- Q446.2Jalen Smith enters the game for Nikola Vucevic112–102
- Q446.2Dalen Terry enters the game for Coby White112–102
- Q446.2Pelicans offensive team rebound112–102
- Q446.2Pelicans Full timeout112–102
- Q446.4Tre Jones blocks Zion Williamson 's 3-foot layup112–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:09Dalen Terry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Coby White assists)NO 72 – 69 CHI · CHI 35% → 46% +11CHI 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q46:35Trey Murphy III makes 22-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 92 – 85 CHI · NO 67% → 81% +14NO 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q46:18Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)NO 92 – 88 CHI · CHI 19% → 32% +14CHI 19% → 32%+14 pts
- Q45:53Jeremiah Fears makes 1-foot two point shotNO 94 – 88 CHI · NO 68% → 78% +10NO 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q45:11Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)NO 96 – 91 CHI · CHI 12% → 25% +12CHI 12% → 25%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML NO +160 / CHI -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -171
- NO +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 122.0 – 126.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +8 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +77 Elo | CHI 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.2 | Points scored | 117.814th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.5 | Points allowed | 122.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.3 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.920th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.7 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 6–516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 148323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301341 | Elo rating | 140325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–11 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.