Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints33
- Kon KnueppelAssists9
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–126
- Q40.2Bulls Full timeout129–126
- Q40.2Kon Knueppel makes two point shot129–126
- Q40.2Kon Knueppel offensive rebound129–124
- Q43.8Brandon Miller misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot129–124
- Q48.2Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2129–124
- Q48.2Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Tidjane Salaun128–124
- Q48.2Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2128–124
- Q48.2Brandon Miller personal foul127–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:40Sion James makes 23-foot three point shot (Tidjane Salaun assists)CHI 106 – 107 CHA · CHA 37% → 53% +16CHA 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q43:07Zach Collins makes two point shotCHI 114 – 113 CHA · CHI 43% → 60% +16CHI 43% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:34Josh Giddey makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Zach Collins assists)CHI 116 – 113 CHA · CHI 60% → 76% +16CHI 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q42:17Kon Knueppel makes 11-foot step back jumpshotCHI 116 – 115 CHA · CHA 23% → 39% +17CHA 23% → 39%+17 pts
- Q41:54Zach Collins makes 18-foot jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 118 – 115 CHA · CHI 62% → 79% +18CHI 62% → 79%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML CHI -142 / CHA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 59.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -129
- CHA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 116.0 – 113.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −54 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +68 Elo | CHI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 114.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 118.323rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −4.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 111.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.0 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–9 | Road vs home | 5–721st of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148520th of 30 |
| 25th of 301399 | Elo rating | 134728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–14 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 7–2 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 28CHI 116 @ CHA 123Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Apr 6CHI 131 @ CHA 117Picked CHI 75%Hit
- Jan 17CHA 125 @ CHI 123Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Dec 30CHI 115 @ CHA 108Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 95 @ CHI 109Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 117 @ CHA 110Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 119 @ CHA 112Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Jan 5CHA 91 @ CHI 104Picked CHI 73%Hit