Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints33
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–128
- OT1.7Bruce Brown defensive rebound125–128
- OT4.9Alperen Sengun misses 24-foot three point shot125–128
- OT6.8Aaron Holiday enters the game for Josh Okogie125–128
- OT6.8Reed Sheppard enters the game for Amen Thompson125–128
- OT6.8Rockets Full timeout125–128
- OT13.0Amen Thompson defensive rebound125–128
- OT16.9Jamal Murray misses 19-foot two point shot125–128
- OT37.7Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 1125–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:09Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 112 – 112 DEN · HOU 16% → 50% +34HOU 16% → 50%+34 pts
- Q455.2Spencer Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 112 – 115 DEN · DEN 50% → 87% +37DEN 50% → 87%+37 pts
- Q436.7Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 115 – 115 DEN · HOU 8% → 50% +42HOU 8% → 50%+42 pts
- Q42.3Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot two point shotHOU 117 – 116 DEN · HOU 3% → 97% +93HOU 3% → 97%+93 pts
- Q42.3Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 1HOU 117 – 117 DEN · DEN 3% → 50% +47DEN 3% → 50%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -115 / DEN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.0 – 117.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −33 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +17 Elo | DEN 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 125.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 115.913th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.2 | Margin | +9.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 123.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 114.418th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 6–413th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 147627th of 30 |
| 6th of 301599 | Elo rating | 16562nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–8 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–4 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Nov 21DEN 112 @ HOU 109Picked HOU 57%Miss
- Apr 13DEN 126 @ HOU 111Picked DEN 68%Hit
- Mar 23DEN 116 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 72%Miss
- Jan 15HOU 128 @ DEN 108Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 114 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 65%Miss
- Nov 29HOU 124 @ DEN 134Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Nov 24DEN 86 @ HOU 105Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Nov 12DEN 104 @ HOU 107Picked DEN 65%Miss