Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Reed SheppardAssists6
- Steven AdamsRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Bruce BrownRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–101
- Q411.9Hunter Tyson makes two point shot115–101
- Q411.9Hunter Tyson offensive rebound115–99
- Q415.1Zeke Nnaji misses 24-foot three point jumper115–99
- Q428.8Amen Thompson makes dunk (Reed Sheppard assists)115–99
- Q448.7Alperen Sengun defensive rebound113–99
- Q451.8Bruce Brown misses driving floating jump shot113–99
- Q41:00Jabari Smith Jr. makes dunk (Amen Thompson assists)113–99
- Q41:06Julian Strawther makes free throw 3 of 3111–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:15Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 32 – 33 DEN · HOU 42% → 50% +7HOU 42% → 50%+7 pts
- Q27:00Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 39 – 37 DEN · HOU 50% → 57% +8HOU 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q26:30Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 42 – 37 DEN · HOU 57% → 65% +8HOU 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q31:15Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 74 – 66 DEN · HOU 70% → 80% +9HOU 70% → 80%+9 pts
- Q356.3Reed Sheppard makes 23-foot running jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 77 – 66 DEN · HOU 80% → 87% +7HOU 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -122 / DEN +102
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- HOU 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 39.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- DEN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.5 – 117.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −9 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +73 Elo | DEN 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 125.61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 116.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.0 | Margin | +9.42nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 123.81st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301581 | Elo rating | 16672nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–5 DEN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Dec 15HOU 125 @ DEN 128Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Nov 21DEN 112 @ HOU 109Picked HOU 57%Miss
- Apr 13DEN 126 @ HOU 111Picked DEN 68%Hit
- Mar 23DEN 116 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 72%Miss
- Jan 15HOU 128 @ DEN 108Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 114 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 65%Miss
- Nov 29HOU 124 @ DEN 134Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Nov 24DEN 86 @ HOU 105Picked DEN 56%Miss