Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds16
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–126
- Q414.4shot clock turnover115–126
- Q436.3Nikola Jokic defensive rebound115–126
- Q440.0Wendell Carter Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper115–126
- Q456.7Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2115–126
- Q456.7Cameron Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2115–125
- Q456.7Desmond Bane personal foul115–124
- Q457.0Nikola Jokic defensive rebound115–124
- Q459.1Paolo Banchero misses 10-foot pullup jump shot115–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:16Jett Howard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 38 – 29 DEN · ORL 47% → 54% +7ORL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q29:01Jase Richardson makes 24-foot running jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 43 – 31 DEN · ORL 55% → 62% +7ORL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:56Jamal Murray makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)ORL 47 – 39 DEN · DEN 38% → 45% +8DEN 38% → 45%+8 pts
- Q25:26Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)ORL 47 – 42 DEN · DEN 45% → 53% +8DEN 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q23:22Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)ORL 51 – 51 DEN · DEN 58% → 65% +8DEN 58% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML ORL +220 / DEN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -234
- ORL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 115.5 – 122.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −14 | ORL: Usual rotation · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +131 Elo | DEN 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 125.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 116.215th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +9.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 123.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 114.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 148123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 16612nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–14 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.