Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints21
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Magic- Desmond BanePoints37
- Anthony BlackAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–117
- Q40.1Heat offensive team rebound108–117
- Q40.6Bam Adebayo misses heave jump shot108–117
- Q42.1shot clock turnover108–117
- Q424.4Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound108–117
- Q426.5Andrew Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper108–117
- Q433.8Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2108–117
- Q433.8Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2108–116
- Q433.8Bam Adebayo personal foul108–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:44Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 69 – 66 ORL · MIA 49% → 58% +9MIA 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:21Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)MIA 69 – 69 ORL · ORL 42% → 51% +10ORL 42% → 51%+10 pts
- Q34:12Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)MIA 73 – 80 ORL · ORL 65% → 74% +9ORL 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q32:41Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Tristan da Silva assists)MIA 77 – 83 ORL · ORL 62% → 72% +10ORL 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q31:34Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyus Jones assists)MIA 81 – 86 ORL · ORL 59% → 70% +11ORL 59% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML MIA -102 / ORL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 55.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.5 – 118.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +5 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +41 Elo | ORL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 117.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +4.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 110.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Pace | 102.712th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 9–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 154912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–5 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 5MIA 105 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Oct 22MIA 121 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Jan 27ORL 119 @ MIA 125Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 89 @ ORL 88Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 21MIA 114 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 54%Hit
- Oct 23ORL 116 @ MIA 97Picked MIA 55%Miss
- Feb 6ORL 95 @ MIA 121Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Jan 21MIA 87 @ ORL 105Picked MIA 51%Miss