Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints17
- Jalen SuggsAssists4
- Anthony BlackRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–106
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound100–106
- Q40.0Jett Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper100–106
- Q41.5Jase Richardson offensive rebound100–106
- Q46.6Jase Richardson misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot100–106
- Q48.5Noah Penda offensive rebound100–106
- Q410.3Noah Penda misses free throw 2 of 2100–106
- Q410.3Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Guerschon Yabusele100–106
- Q410.3Magic offensive team rebound100–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10.6Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 29 – 35 NY · NY 57% → 66% +9NY 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q29:01Desmond Bane makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 36 – 39 NY · ORL 31% → 40% +9ORL 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:00Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 66 – 69 NY · ORL 29% → 38% +9ORL 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q33:38Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)ORL 70 – 76 NY · NY 62% → 72% +10NY 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:37Jalen Suggs makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 73 – 78 NY · ORL 21% → 31% +9ORL 21% → 31%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML ORL +102 / NY -122
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NY: Elo 51.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -111
- ORL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.0 – 115.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −24 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +12 Elo | NY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 121.44th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 113.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +8.44th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 100.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 12–12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 147128th of 30 |
| 10th of 301556 | Elo rating | 16084th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 12–7 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–4 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Nov 22NY 121 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 52%Hit
- Nov 12ORL 124 @ NY 107Picked NY 62%Miss
- Jan 6ORL 103 @ NY 94Picked NY 80%Miss
- Dec 27NY 108 @ ORL 85Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 15NY 100 @ ORL 91Picked NY 61%Hit
- Dec 3ORL 106 @ NY 121Picked NY 65%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 74 @ NY 98Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Feb 14NY 100 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 55%Hit