New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints40
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds9
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints26
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–120
- Q414.1Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound132–120
- Q416.7Paolo Banchero misses layup132–120
- Q419.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound132–120
- Q422.5Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot132–120
- Q427.9Paolo Banchero defensive rebound132–120
- Q429.1OG Anunoby misses free throw 2 of 2132–120
- Q429.1Guerschon Yabusele enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns132–120
- Q429.1Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Jalen Brunson132–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:52Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NY 73 – 69 ORL · ORL 23% → 31% +7ORL 23% → 31%+7 pts
- Q36:56Anthony Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)NY 83 – 81 ORL · ORL 27% → 36% +9ORL 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q34:08OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three pointer (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 88 – 89 ORL · NY 43% → 53% +11NY 43% → 53%+11 pts
- Q31:06Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 99 – 92 ORL · NY 71% → 80% +9NY 71% → 80%+9 pts
- Q44:23Jase Richardson makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotNY 114 – 108 ORL · ORL 5% → 13% +8ORL 5% → 13%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML NY -180 / ORL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NY: Elo 63.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -161
- ORL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.5 – 111.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +38 | +6 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +97 Elo | NY 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 117.813th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 113.47th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.6 | Margin | +4.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 4th of 301623 | Elo rating | 155710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–9 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–7 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–6 ORL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Dec 7ORL 100 @ NY 106Picked NY 53%Hit
- Nov 22NY 121 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 52%Hit
- Nov 12ORL 124 @ NY 107Picked NY 62%Miss
- Jan 6ORL 103 @ NY 94Picked NY 80%Miss
- Dec 27NY 108 @ ORL 85Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 15NY 100 @ ORL 91Picked NY 61%Hit
- Dec 3ORL 106 @ NY 121Picked NY 65%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 74 @ NY 98Picked ORL 56%Miss