New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists4
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints31
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–101
- Q413.6Kevin McCullar Jr. defensive rebound117–101
- Q416.3Chucky Hepburn misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot117–101
- Q424.5Kevin McCullar Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Tyler Kolek assists)117–101
- Q449.7A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 2114–101
- Q449.7A.J. Lawson makes free throw 1 of 2114–100
- Q449.7Tosan Evbuomwan personal foul114–99
- Q458.0Raptors defensive team rebound114–99
- Q458.0A.J. Lawson blocks Mohamed Diawara 's 6-foot driving layup114–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:28Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)NY 16 – 17 TOR · NY 59% → 66% +6NY 59% → 66%+6 pts
- Q15:18Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chucky Hepburn assists)NY 16 – 20 TOR · TOR 34% → 41% +6TOR 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q14:36Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 19 – 20 TOR · NY 59% → 66% +6NY 59% → 66%+6 pts
- Q11:38Jamal Shead makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)NY 30 – 32 TOR · TOR 31% → 37% +6TOR 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q132.0Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 35 – 37 TOR · NY 55% → 62% +7NY 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -258 / TOR +210
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NY: Elo 70.4%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -223
- TOR +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 110.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +11 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +150 Elo | NY 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 116.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.89th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.3 | Margin | +2.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.914th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.48th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 4th of 301615 | Elo rating | 144722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–9 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 9–0 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.