Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Neemias QuetaRebounds11
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints30
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–113
- Q49.8Payton Pritchard enters the game for Baylor Scheierman121–113
- Q49.8Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta121–113
- Q49.8Scottie Barnes turnover121–113
- Q49.8Scottie Barnes offensive charge121–113
- Q414.3Raptors offensive team rebound121–113
- Q415.0Derrick White blocks Brandon Ingram 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot121–113
- Q418.9Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Payton Pritchard121–113
- Q418.9A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jakob Poeltl121–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:17A.J. Lawson makes 25-foot three point shot (Jamal Shead assists)BOS 97 – 96 TOR · TOR 30% → 42% +12TOR 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q48:14Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot two point shotBOS 99 – 102 TOR · TOR 52% → 61% +10TOR 52% → 61%+10 pts
- Q47:51Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumperBOS 102 – 102 TOR · BOS 38% → 53% +15BOS 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q47:15Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 105 – 102 TOR · BOS 53% → 69% +15BOS 53% → 69%+15 pts
- Q44:17Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 110 – 104 TOR · BOS 72% → 87% +15BOS 72% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML BOS -155 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.0 – 110.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +34 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +106 Elo | BOS 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 116.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 113.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | +3.012th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 113.814th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
| 19th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 146729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301645 | Elo rating | 145322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–1 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Feb 25BOS 111 @ TOR 101Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 97 @ TOR 110Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Dec 31TOR 71 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 16TOR 123 @ BOS 126Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 105 @ TOR 96Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Dec 29TOR 118 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 65%Hit
- Nov 17BOS 108 @ TOR 105Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Nov 11TOR 94 @ BOS 117Picked BOS 57%Hit